Change & Uncertainty

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The old saying used to be that only two things were certain in this life – death and taxes. Over recent years a third element has been added – that of change. Indeed, change is now so often trumpeted as a constant that it has become a mere cliché.

However, I am not so sure.

Einstein, in proposing the General Theory of Relativity, reflexively dropped into his equations something called the cosmological constant, which arbitrarily offset the effects of gravity. He later called it “the biggest blunder of my life”.

Are we about to make a similar error where change is concerned?

When assessing the nature of change we quickly recognize that while change may always be with us, it is no constant. Change happens at different speeds, in different directions, at different times, in different places and in different ways. In fact, the one thing about change is uncertainty. In which case, how can we pretend that it is a constant?

Unless we accept the unknown nature of change we may find ourselves expecting a large shift in circumstances, say, economic recovery, that actually unfolds only slowly. We may anticipate a fast payback on an advertising campaign that turns out to be a slow-burn. We may bet the balance sheet on our latest product going unremarked by the competition, when the opposite proves to be true.

In no way does change appear to have the same degree of certainty as death and taxes where the end results are well known and totally predictable (death and less disposable income).

Mind you, the advent of dark matter and dark energy may mean Einstein was right after all. So we may not understand as much about change as we think we do.